This week in 30 seconds

• Gold: NZ$7,767/oz on 5 May, +1.18% on the day. Recovering after April's pullback.
• Silver: NZ$126.30/oz, +1.90% on the day, outperforming gold.
• Gold/silver ratio: sitting near 61.5, a healthy mid-range reading.
• The big story: A tanker was struck by projectiles in the Strait of Hormuz on 4 May, escalating the Middle East conflict into its tenth week.
• The bigger story: The Fed, ECB, Bank of England and Bank of Japan all held rates steady last week. A major tailwind for bullion.
• The biggest story: The World Gold Council's Q1 2026 data shows gold demand hit a record NZ$327 billion in value, and the composition of that demand has fundamentally shifted.

After April's choppy month and pullback from the January record, gold is steadying.

On Tuesday 5 May, spot gold traded at NZ$7,767/oz, up NZ$91 (+1.18%) on the day. That's a notable bounce from the late-April lows around NZ$7,660 and signals buyers are stepping back in.

Why the recovery? A softer US dollar after last week's central bank decisions (more on that below) and renewed safe-haven flows after the Hormuz incident are doing the heavy lifting. Gold is back into "buyers feel comfortable accumulating" territory.

Silver had the better week. After dropping below NZ$124 earlier in the week on Hormuz fears, it bounced back to NZ$126.30/oz by Tuesday, up 1.90% on the day, beating gold percentage-wise.

That outperformance is meaningful. When silver leads gold higher, it's often a sign that risk appetite is broadening across the metals complex, not just safe-haven gold buying, but speculative and industrial money coming back too.

The gold/silver ratio at 61.5 is right in the historical sweet spot. Not screamingly cheap silver (that would be 80+), not silver overheated relative to gold (that would be below 50). Just a healthy market.

The Middle East situation took another sharp turn on Sunday 4 May.

A tanker was struck by projectiles in the Strait of Hormuz shortly after President Trump announced plans to escort commercial ships through the waterway. Iran responded by warning it would target any US forces entering the strait and cautioned commercial vessels against moving without coordination with the Iranian military.

Within 24 hours:

• US forces repelled Iranian attacks while escorting two US-flagged vessels.
• The UAE intercepted cruise missiles attributed to Iran.
• A major fire at the UAE's Fujairah port was attributed to an Iranian drone strike.

The conflict has now been running for ten weeks. The four-week ceasefire announced last month is in serious doubt.

The flip side: it also keeps central banks cautious about cutting rates, which can put a ceiling on how high metals climb. Right now, the safe-haven impulse is winning.

Markets had been bracing for hawkish signals last week. Instead, they got the opposite.

In a synchronised pause, the Federal Reserve, European Central Bank, Bank of England, and Bank of Japan all held interest rates steady. No hikes. No cuts. Just a collective "let's see what happens next."

For bullion buyers, this is huge. When rates rise, gold suffers (it pays no interest, so opportunity cost goes up). When rates pause or fall, gold thrives. Last week's coordinated hold removes one of the biggest headwinds the metals have been fighting since January.

Combined with sticky inflation (readings from both the US and Europe came in above expectations last week) this creates the classic gold tailwind: real interest rates aren't rising as fast as inflation, which means money is quietly losing purchasing power. Bullion is the traditional answer.

The biggest story most people will miss. "Bars trump bracelets"

The World Gold Council published its Q1 2026 Gold Demand Trends report on 5 May. The headlines focused on the price record. But the real story is in the composition.

One more figure that completes the picture: jewellery demand fell 23% in volume.

Read that carefully. Investment demand for physical bars and coins is now decisively outpacing jewellery fabrication, and that's a structural shift this market has rarely seen at this scale.

Why does this matter? Because the type of buyer determines how the market behaves:

• Jewellery buyers are price-elastic. When gold gets expensive, they back off, creating a natural ceiling.
• Investment bar and coin buyers are price-insensitive. They accumulate on strength and hold through volatility, providing a floor.

For NZ buyers: this is the international evidence behind what we've been seeing locally. Investment demand for physical bullion is real, growing, and global. You're not late.

What's in store for next week

A few things to watch:

What this means if you're a NZ buyer

The setup heading into mid-May is constructive for bullion:

• Central banks paused. Big tailwind removed.
• Geopolitical risk elevated. Safe-haven bid intact.
• Q1 demand data. Structural buyers driving the market.
• Inflation sticky. Real value of cash continues to erode.

None of this means prices go straight up. They won't. Volatility will continue. But the underlying trend that took gold from roughly NZ$3,390 to NZ$9,490 over the past two years remains structurally intact.

For first-time buyers, this is exactly the kind of week where dollar-cost averaging (buying steadily over time) does its quiet work. Don't try to time the perfect bottom. Just start.

Quick FAQ

Want to go deeper? Read our comparison of gold, silver and copper, the history of why bullion is measured in troy ounces, our guide to storing bullion safely, or browse all market updates.

Williams Bullion publishes weekly market updates, monthly recaps, and beginner guides for New Zealand precious metals investors. This article is for general information only and does not constitute financial advice. Precious metals prices can fall as well as rise.