Market Update · June 2026

Gold Cools, the Kiwi Softens, and Copper Holds Its Ground

June closed out a turbulent first half of 2026 for precious metals. After January's record-breaking highs, gold spent the month grinding lower as a newly hawkish US Federal Reserve and a stronger US dollar pulled hard against safe-haven demand. For New Zealand stackers, though, the picture is gentler than the US headlines suggest, because the Kiwi has been falling too.

Spot snapshot as at 23 June 2026 · All figures indicative

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The bigger picture

The dominant force this month has been monetary policy, not geopolitics. At its June meeting, the first chaired by Kevin Warsh, the US Federal Reserve held rates steady but struck a distinctly hawkish tone, with nine of its nineteen policymakers now projecting at least one rate increase before the end of 2026. Futures markets moved quickly, pricing a December hike at roughly 89% probability. The US dollar index pushed above 100 for the first time in over a year, and higher-for-longer rate expectations are a headwind for non-yielding assets like gold.

Working in the opposite direction is the Middle East. After conflict erupted in late February and disrupted oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz, the US and Iran have now signed a memorandum of understanding in Switzerland laying out a 60-day peace roadmap. Oil has eased, Iran has been granted a licence to resume exports, and the inflation premium that supported metals earlier in the year is fading. All eyes are now on the US PCE inflation report, the Fed's preferred gauge, due this week.

Gold

Spot gold sits at around US$4,124 an ounce (≈ NZ$7,220), down close to 10% over the month and testing the US$4,100 to $4,200 support zone for the third time since March. It is worth keeping perspective: gold first broke US$5,000 in late January and set an all-time high of US$5,595.75 on 29 January before retreating. Even after the pullback, gold remains roughly 24% higher than it was a year ago.

The World Gold Council framed the month's central question neatly: is the dollar's break above 100 a genuine structural shift, or a "head fake" that sets up a reversal? With several of its catalysts (softer inflation, resumed Iranian oil) already in motion, plenty of analysts still see the long-term case intact.

Gold remains around 24% higher than a year ago, a useful reminder that month-to-month noise and the longer arc are two very different things.

Silver

Silver has been the month's most volatile metal, retreating from above US$70 in mid-June to around US$62 an ounce (≈ NZ$108), a fall of more than 4% in a single session on 23 June. The gold-to-silver ratio has widened to roughly 66, reflecting the heavier selling in silver. That volatility is structural: silver is around half industrial metal, so it gets caught in both the monetary tide and the demand cycle for electronics, solar and energy storage. Despite the recent slide, silver is still up about 80% over the past twelve months and well above where it sat for most of the past decade.

Platinum

Platinum has slipped to around US$1,662 an ounce (≈ NZ$2,910), its lowest since December 2025, under the same strong-dollar pressure. But the supply story remains compelling: production is heavily concentrated in South Africa and Russia, where aging mines, high costs and sanctions continue to constrain output. After setting its own all-time high of US$2,734.72 in late January, platinum's structural tightness is one for value-focused buyers to keep an eye on.

Copper

Copper eased to around US$6.12 a pound (≈ NZ$10.70), or roughly US$13,500 a tonne, down about 4% on the month after touching record territory near US$13,800 a tonne earlier in 2026. The near-term softness reflects easing supply concerns and subdued Chinese demand, but the long-term thesis is hard to ignore: copper sits at the heart of electrification, grid investment and the build-out of AI data centres, all of which are structurally copper-hungry. A potential US tariff of 25% or more on refined copper imports is an added wildcard. Even after June's dip, copper is up more than 25% year-on-year, a reminder of why we have always believed in the red metal.

The Kiwi angle

Here is the part that matters most for New Zealand buyers. The New Zealand dollar fell to around US$0.57 this month, its lowest in roughly two-and-a-half months, and down about 3% over the period. A weaker Kiwi means that even when metals fall in US dollar terms, the drop is partly cushioned for those of us buying in NZD. The Reserve Bank of New Zealand remains on a tightening path, with markets pricing a 25 basis-point hike in July, even as second-quarter growth is expected to stall under the weight of the global fuel shock. For stackers, currency is quietly doing some of the heavy lifting.

What it means for stackers

Months like June are exactly why we talk about owning something real. Prices move, sometimes sharply, but the case for holding physical metal has never been about timing the next tick. It is about owning a tangible store of value that sits outside the financial system. Pullbacks from record highs can be an opportunity to accumulate at better levels, and a regular, disciplined approach tends to serve stackers far better than chasing the headlines.

Copper: ~US$6.12 a pound (≈ NZ$10.70), up around 25% over the past 12 months, still the quiet workhorse of the electrification story.

*NZD equivalents are spot conversions at NZD/USD ≈ 0.571 (about NZ$1.75 per US$1) and are indicative only, not Williams Bullion retail prices, which carry a premium over spot. Spot prices move every few seconds.

Williams Bullion provides this market update for general information only. It is not financial, investment or tax advice, and it does not take account of your personal circumstances or objectives. Precious metals prices can rise and fall, and past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Please consider your own situation and seek independent professional advice before making any investment decision. Prices quoted are indicative spot levels as at 23 June 2026 and will have moved since publication.