Market Update · July 2026

Gold Near Nine-Month Lows, and a Stronger Kiwi Sharpens the Fall

July has extended the correction that began after January's records. Gold is holding above US$4,000 but trading close to nine-month lows, silver has given back more than half its peak, and — in a reversal of the pattern we described in June — a stronger New Zealand dollar is now deepening the fall for local buyers rather than cushioning it.

Spot snapshot as at 17–20 July 2026 · All figures indicative

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The bigger picture

Two forces are pulling in opposite directions, and for now the monetary one is winning.

On the bearish side, the US Federal Reserve has stayed firmly hawkish. Markets are no longer debating the timing of cuts — they are pricing the possibility of further increases, and Goldman Sachs has removed the last of its 2026 rate cuts from its forecast altogether. Higher-for-longer rates are a persistent headwind for assets that pay no yield, and that is precisely what bullion is.

Inflation has cooperated with that view. US consumer price inflation came in at 3.5% in June, the first decline in five months and below the 3.8% economists expected, down from 4.2% in May. Headline prices actually fell 0.4% on the month, the largest monthly drop since April 2020, as energy costs eased. Core inflation sits at 2.6%. Cooling inflation removes one of the strongest arguments for holding metal.

On the bullish side, the geopolitical picture has deteriorated again. The Strait of Hormuz crisis that began in late February eased in June with a partial reopening — the development that pulled oil down and inflation with it. That truce collapsed on 8 July, and the strait remains largely closed with attacks on commercial shipping continuing. Oil, which peaked around US$126 a barrel in the spring, is nonetheless back near US$70. The market is, for the moment, treating the conflict as priced in.

Underneath all of this sits a genuine divergence worth watching. Central banks bought a net 244 tonnes of gold in the first quarter of 2026, above both the previous quarter and the five-year average, and have kept buying since. Exchange-traded funds have been doing the opposite, shedding 16 tonnes in May alone. With roughly 298 tonnes of ETF gold now sitting underwater at around US$4,000, that selling pressure is structural rather than sentimental. Official buyers and financial buyers are taking opposite sides of the same trade.

Gold

Spot gold is trading around US$4,024 an ounce (≈ NZ$6,866), down about 4% over the month and roughly 3% over the past week, holding above the US$4,000 level but close to nine-month lows.

Perspective matters here more than usual. Gold set a record just under US$5,600 in late January before reversing, which puts it roughly 28% below that peak and around 7% down year-to-date. Yet it is still 18.4% higher than a year ago. Both of those statements describe the same metal in the same week.

Gold is down 28% from January and up 18% on the year. Which number matters depends entirely on when you bought.

Silver

Silver has taken the heavier punishment. It is trading around US$57 an ounce (≈ NZ$97–99), down about 12% on the month and roughly 21% year-to-date. Against its January peak of US$121.62 it is down some 53%. Part of that unwind was mechanical rather than fundamental: a margin increase at the CME forced leveraged positions out of the market.

We want to be plain about this, because there is a lot of loose commentary circulating. Silver's spectacular 144% gain belongs to calendar 2025, not to this year. Anyone telling you silver is surging right now is describing last year's chart. In 2026 it has fallen hard.

What has not changed is the supply picture. The World Silver Survey projects a 46.3 million ounce deficit in 2026 — the sixth consecutive annual shortfall, and wider than 2025's 40.3 million ounces. Silver is roughly half industrial metal, so it is caught between the monetary tide and the demand cycle for electronics, solar and energy storage. A structural deficit and a falling price can coexist for a long time, and at present they are.

The gold-to-silver ratio has widened to around 70, up from roughly 66 in June, reflecting the heavier selling in silver.

Platinum

Platinum sits near US$1,605 an ounce, which converts to approximately NZ$2,738 at current rates. It set its own all-time high of US$2,734.72 in late January and has followed gold and silver lower since. The supply story is unchanged and remains the reason value-focused buyers keep an eye on it: production is heavily concentrated in South Africa and Russia, where ageing mines, high costs and sanctions continue to constrain output.

Copper

Copper on the London Metal Exchange settled at US$13,373.50 a tonne on 17 July — about US$6.07 a pound (≈ NZ$10.36). It is worth naming the exchange, because COMEX copper was trading around US$6.22 a pound the same day. That roughly 2.5% gap is the long-standing COMEX-over-LME premium, not a pricing error, and it is a fair explanation for why two published copper prices can disagree on the same afternoon.

Copper has drifted lower with the rest of the complex, but the long-term thesis is unchanged: electrification, grid investment and data-centre construction are all structurally copper-hungry, and none of that demand is going away.

The Kiwi angle

This is where July differs sharply from June, and it is the part most international commentary will not tell you.

The New Zealand dollar has strengthened, buying about US$0.584 and up roughly 1.5% over the month. In June a falling Kiwi cushioned NZ buyers from the US dollar decline. This month the opposite is happening: a stronger Kiwi amplifies it. Gold fell 4.0% in US dollars over the month, but closer to 5.4% in New Zealand dollars once the currency move is applied.

Stretch the horizon and it flips again. Over twelve months the Kiwi is down about 2%, so gold's NZD gain of roughly 21% actually exceeds its USD gain of 18.4%. Currency has been quietly helping local holders over the year while hurting them over the month.

Behind the currency is the Reserve Bank. On 8 July the RBNZ raised the Official Cash Rate by 25 basis points to 2.50%, a unanimous decision and a notable shift from May, when the committee split three-three and the Governor's casting vote held rates steady. The Bank pointed to the partial reopening of the Strait of Hormuz and the resulting fall in oil prices as easing near-term inflation pressure. It expects New Zealand's annual inflation to have peaked at about 3.9% in the June quarter before easing to 3.3% in the September quarter, and has signalled that further increases "appear likely."

What the forecasters say

Rarely have professional forecasts been this far apart. For year-end 2026 gold, the World Gold Council's mid-year outlook (1 July) expects a rangebound market within about 5% of US$4,100. Goldman Sachs cut its target to US$4,900 on 20 June. UBS sits at US$5,500, and J.P. Morgan is holding a base case near US$6,000.

That is a spread of roughly 46% between the most cautious and the most bullish view — which is itself the honest summary of where we are. Nobody knows.

Silver forecasts carry an awkward feature worth pointing out rather than glossing over: every institutional target we can find sits well above today's price. The LBMA analyst survey averages US$79.57 for 2026 (with a range of US$42 to US$165), J.P. Morgan models US$81, Commerzbank US$90 by year end, and ING — after cutting its numbers in June — still has US$68 for the third quarter. Even the most conservative of those is about 19% above spot. Either the analysts are behind the market, or the market is oversold. We would not care to say which.

What it means for stackers

Months like this are the real test of why you own metal. Prices have fallen a long way from January, and anyone who bought at the peak is well underwater. That is worth saying plainly rather than dressing up.

But the case for holding physical bullion was never a bet on the next quarter. It is about owning a tangible store of value that sits outside the financial system and does not depend on anyone else's promise. Corrections are also when metal is cheaper than it was, and a regular, disciplined approach has historically served stackers better than reacting to headlines in either direction. Whether that suits your circumstances is a decision only you can make, ideally with advice.

Platinum: ~US$1,605 an ounce (≈ NZ$2,738). Copper: ~US$13,374 a tonne on the LME, about US$6.07 a pound (≈ NZ$10.36). Verified 1-month and 12-month changes were not available for these two at the time of writing, so we have left them out rather than estimate.

*NZD equivalents are spot conversions at NZD/USD ≈ 0.586 (about NZ$1.71 per US$1) and are indicative only, not Williams Bullion retail prices, which carry a premium over spot. NZD percentage changes combine the US dollar price move with the currency move over the same period. Spot prices move every few seconds.

Williams Bullion provides this market update for general information only. It is not financial, investment or tax advice, and it does not take account of your personal circumstances or objectives. Precious metals prices can rise and fall, and past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Forecasts quoted are the published views of third parties, not of Williams Bullion, and are not predictions of what will happen. Please consider your own situation and seek independent professional advice before making any investment decision. Prices quoted are indicative spot levels as at 17–20 July 2026 and will have moved since publication.